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发信人: meipeng(原来) 整理人: roy_young(2002-03-26 17:50:44), 站内信件 |
| 原文：饼会做大吗？
如果加入世贸对中国整体而言是弊大于利，它显然是一件坏事。中国之所以加入世贸事因为它相信，进一步融入全球市场对中国利大于弊。 作为世贸成员，中国承诺将逐步降低关税、消除非贸易壁垒、开放国内市场，并允许资本更自由的跨国流动。在理论界居主流地位的经济学预测，如果一个国家实行更加开放的贸易政策，其经济增长率会提高。用通俗的话说，加入世贸会将饼做得更大。但理论归理论，实际上开放是不是一定有助于促进经济增长呢？学术界在这个问题上没有定论，仍处于公说公有理，婆说婆有理得阶段。例如，最近世界银行得一项研究发现，在过去得几十年里，奉行自由贸易政策得国家经济增长率一般比封闭的国家要快得多。然而，近期另一项由独立学者进行得研究却在系统考察现有理论文献和实证数据后发现，自由贸易政策和经济增长之间并不存在显著得相关关系。在这篇短文里，我们没必要也不可能判定哪一项研究更具权威性。不过至少有两点是清楚的：对全球化的反对者，应向他们指出，更大程度的开放有可能使中国的经济在整体上受益；对全球化的迷信者，则应提醒他们，更大程度的开放不一定会让中国经济在整体上受益。 在过去的二十多年里，中国通过逐步敞开自己的大门，至少在三个方面获益匪浅：一，通过国际贸易，中国根据其比较优势进行了结构调整，提高了自己整体的资源配置效率；二，通过引进外资和其它形式的对外交往，中国各产业都从知识外溢性中受益，从而提高了中国各产业的技术效率；三，通过与外国公司竞争，中国企业不得不提高他们的产品质量并采取新的管理方法，这样就提高了他们的微观生产效率。没有人怀疑，在过去的二十年里，对外开放对中国整体而言使利大于弊的。我们希望，也有理由相信，进一步对外开放依然是利大于弊的。 译文：will the cake bigger? If the cost covers the benefit for china’s entrnce to WTO, it is obviously a bad thing. China joins in WTO because it believes that the more china urges into the world market, the more benefit it will enjoy. As a member of WTO, china promises to lower tariff, eliminate non-trade bulwark, open domestic market, as well as allow capital to flow more freely between countries. Mainstream economists predict that if a country carries out more open trade policy, its economy-increasing rate will be higher. In popular way, that means entering WTO will make the cake bigger. Still, theory is theory, in fact, is the opening policy sure to improve the economy situation? The academia is still confused with this question with different opinions and conceptions. For example, recently a research of the World Bank finds out that in the past many years, the economy-increasing rate in countries, which pursue free-trade policy, is much higher than those sealed ones. However, another research held by independent scholars proves free trade policy has no obvious relation with economy expansion after systematically investigating the theory literature and statistics. There is no need and possibility to judge which one is more canonical in this essay, but two points should be paid attention. For the opponents of globalization, we should point out open policy in higher degree is likely to benefit the Chinese economy as a whole, while for the cultismers, we should remind them the same thing is not likely to do us good. In the past twenty years, china enjoys much benefit in three aspects by gradually opening its door to the outside world. First, through international trade, china adjusts its economy structure to improve its market efficiency according to the comparative advantage, second, by bringing in foreign capital and other forms of communication, all fields of china’s economy benefit from extension of knowledge, and the efficiency has greatly improved, third, in order to compete with foreign companies, Chinese companies have to improve the quantity of their products and adopt new management methods, which better their micro-product efficiency. There is no doubt that in the past twenty years, open policy is good for china as a whole. We hope, and also have reasons to believe that opening in higher degree will still be good for us. ----  欢迎来我的主页
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